'Shifting Terror Groups Balance in the Southwestern Philippines'
Examining the Cooperation Between 'BIFF' and 'Dawlah-Islamiyah' in the Isulan Bus Attack.
Regarding the 'Isulan bus' incident that occurred on April 17, 2023, it is estimated by AFP Intelligence that both 'Dawlah-Islamiyah' & 'Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters' ('BIFF') groups took part in carrying out the attack together.
An analysis of the bus route from North Cotabato to Isulan, Sultan Kudarat can show that the route is in the 'BIFF'-controlled area.
While 'ISIS-Maute' also known as 'Dawlah-Islamiyah', sits in the north, they must have 'BIFF' intelligence support on army/security forces movements in this area, as well as potential hot targets and escape routes for successful operations.
The key question is why 'BIFF' needs 'Dawlah-Islamiyah'
When taking into account processes and factors in the work environment and analyzing the situation to identify future processes we can learn a few things.
Philippines Intelligence will now have a significant advantage with the defection of the six 'Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters' ('BIFF') group members.
This article could shed light on the current state of the 'BIFF'. It could be a serious blow to the 'BIFF' group.
This article is in addition to a similar incident that occurred at the end of April and is related to 14 'BIFF' militants that yield in Rajah Buayan town, Maguindanao del Sur province.
Reading about both incidents may explain why the 'BIFF' needs the support of the 'Dawlah' group, especially in terms of operational capabilities.
That is a big factor that will influence 'BIFF''s actions in the future.
That could be a possible reason for the cooperation with the 'IS-Maute' aka 'Dawlah-Islamiya' at least regarding the "Isulan bus' incident on April 17, 2023, as they would not be limited in their actions and could use kinda a third party to achieve their goals The focus would need to go on Maute's now.
It is possible that the group's leadership recognized processes of expected members defection, either internal disagreements or early detection of morale in the group, but this is just my assumption.
What is certain is the fact that the focus of the AFP and the intelligence authorities is focused on the members of the group in their territory and especially in their areas of operation i.e. Bangsamoro.
In order for the group members to be able to continue their current activities, they must think of creative ways.
One solution is third-party assistance.
Cooperating with members of the northern 'Dawlah-Islamiyah' group can remove the group's limitations on actions.
The intention, the assistance of unknown faces in the area can allow freedom of movement and the execution of ongoing terrorist activities.
To add that the terrain route in the northern Philippines region (Marawi area) is the same as that in the Bangsamoro region so the members of the 'Dawlah-Islamiyah' group have experience in assimilation and movement in an urban area until the operation is carried out.
If the intelligence assessment is correct, the cooperation between the two groups remains unclear.
However, their common Salafist ideology may be the key to achieving shared goals, despite potential challenges in dynamics and relationships.
If this is the case and indeed cooperation between the groups is forged, the AFP/local Intelligence will face a new challenge that needs to be taken into account.
Studying the composition of the 'Dawlah-Islamiyah' group with all its components and operatives, and the organization's method of operation, are two actions that must be carried out in the ITF (immediate time frame) in order to thwart future attacks.
Based on my analysis of expected processes, it can be concluded that if cooperation between the two groups does indeed tighten over time, the AFP/Intelligence will face the challenge of changes in the middle-level leadership of the 'BIFF' group.
This is due to the fear that the six members who defected from the group may have provided information about its structure. While this is only my assessment, it is a consideration that should be kept in mind.
I will continue to follow this development with interest.
In Conclusion
Based on the analysis of the 'Isulan bus attack' incident and the potential cooperation between 'BIFF' and 'Dawlah-Islamiyah', it is evident that the situation in the southwestern Philippines is becoming increasingly challenging.
The AFP/local Intelligence is facing new challenges that require them to study the composition of the groups and their methods of operation to prevent future attacks.
It is clear that the 'BIFF' needs the support of the 'Dawlah' group to overcome their limitations on actions, which could be due to internal disagreements or early detection of morale in the group.
This cooperation can allow them freedom of movement and the execution of ongoing terrorist activities.
However, if the intelligence assessment is correct and the cooperation between the two groups tightens over time, the AFP/Intelligence will face the challenge of changes in the middle-level leadership of the BIFF group due to the fear that the defected members may have provided information about its structure.
Despite potential challenges in dynamics and relationships, the common Salafist ideology may be the key to achieving shared goals between the two groups.
My assessment: Therefore, it is crucial to continue monitoring the situation closely and take necessary actions to prevent future attacks and maintain peace and stability in the region.
On this occasion, I would like to thank Zam Yusa for drawing attention to the news about the possible cooperation between the 2 groups.
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May 2023.