"Harakat Al-Shabaab Al-Mujaheddin"- 2023
"Harakat Al-Shabaab Al-Mujaheddin" is re-back to its good days! Analysis, Insights, and Ways to fight terrorism/ organized crime organizations.
Somalia is currently undertaking the second phase of its operation against Al-Shabaab, a terrorist organization that has plagued the country for years.
The fight against terrorist organizations is a complex and multifaceted issue that requires a comprehensive approach.
Military action alone is not enough to defeat an organization like Al-Shabaab or any other terror group.
To truly defeat Al-Shabaab, Somalia must adopt a comprehensive strategy that combines diplomacy, economic measures, and social programs, along with effective intelligence gathering including cyber capabilities and law enforcement efforts.
Fighting against Al-Shabaab poses a significant challenge, primarily because the group is adept at adapting and evolving.
Their ability to change tactics and strategies constantly makes it difficult for security forces to keep up and prevent their activities.
They have demonstrated their capacity to adjust their tactics and strategies in response to changing circumstances, making it difficult to anticipate their next move.
Additionally, they have taken advantage of the political and economic instability in Somalia to recruit new members and expand their influence.
However, the elimination of such groups cannot be achieved through military means alone.
It requires a careful and strategic approach that takes into account the organization's weaknesses and vulnerabilities.
Focusing only on military action could actually lead to more aggressive and focused attacks by Al-Shabaab.
Furthermore, taking such action would come with a high price tag in terms of financial expenses, as well as potential harm to the government's reputation.
Even with these costs, there is no guarantee that such measures would result in the complete defeat of the organization.
Recent events over the past few weeks have shed light on the current state and future of Al-Shabaab.
The group has shifted from a defensive to an offensive stance, expanding its reach into previously uncharted territories in Somalia.
This indicates that Al-Shabaab still poses a serious threat and has not been eliminated. They continue to be a significant threat and are far from being defeated.
Unfortunately, from my point of view, some of the steps taken by the Somalian government in response to this threat may have actually given Al-Shabaab an advantage.
From my perspective, there are better ways to combat the group's growing influence, by focusing on its weak points and vulnerabilities.
In this article, I will delve into the recent events that occurred in the last 3 weeks, assess the current state of Al-Shabaab, and offer recommendations for how Somalia can effectively damage and ultimately defeat this notorious terrorist organization.
If Somalia were to adopt a comprehensive approach, it could potentially bring about peace and stability in the region, which would guarantee the safety and security of its people. Taking this type of approach would involve considering and addressing various factors that contribute to the instability and insecurity in the region.
I read reports about the progress of the Somalian army that count the heavy losses of the Al-Shabaab organization.
It is doubtful that the numbers are accurate, but a separation needs to be made between Al-Shabaab's losses and the organization's higher-than-ever motivation and fighting spirit, and this is what the Somalian army is missing in understanding.
From my analysis, the organization is recovering its good days!
On April 10, 2023, The Al-Qāeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Al-Shabaab Al-Mujaheddin, released a nearly 20-minute video by "Al-Kataib Media" showing two leaders Fuad Muhammad Khalaf aka "Shangole" and Muhammad Bashar Abd Al-Karim delivering sermons during the graduation ceremony at the “Sayyid Muhammad Abdullah Hassan” training camp in Middle Juba.
The video shows new graduates who completed training in & receiving lectures and ideology.
The terror group claim & plans to conduct attacks in Somalia and East Africa (Kenya & Ethiopia) in the coming days.
Further claims targeting SNA patrol in Mogadishu as well as other operations.
In the full version of the video, Ali Rage (Ali Dheere) specifically warns Somali clans in the central part of the country who've taken up arms against the insurgents.
This great thread about the speech By Christopher Anzalone can be read here.
The ceremony originally took place in September 2022, but on April 10, 2023, it was re-broadcast on the " Al-Kataib Media ", an account of an Al-Shabaab organization.
This move can be seen as a warning from the group that they are still present and stronger than ever.
The timing of the publication was likely, not accidental, and recent events seem to be part of a sequence that began with speeches given at the same ceremony in September.
This was published near the date of the news of the arrest and deportation of Lutrnan Warsame Farah, the eldest son of a high-ranking senior leader of Al-Shabaab Fuad Mohamed Qalaf aka Fuad "Shangole" (One of the leaders who spoke at the ceremony), from Costa Rica at the end of March.
The Costa Rican authorities had taken him into custody.
Farah entered Costa Rica on January 4, 2023, using the alias Luqman Abdl Aziz and Swedish passport number AA2967765.
According to information gathered by DIS agents, Farah arrived in Costa Rica on Iberia flight IB6317 from Spain and stayed in the country for a month before leaving through an irregular border crossing to Nicaragua.
It was also reported that he changed hotels frequently.
The FBI had issued a warning in February 2023 about the possible presence of an Al-Shabaab member in Costa Rica and also noted that Farah was listed by the FBI’s Terrorist Screening Center.
There is no information available regarding whether Farah arrived in Costa Rica alone or with companions, or the reason for his visit.
However, given his status, it is highly probable that he had at least one security escort.
Some have speculated that he intended to come to the United States to carry out an attack, but there is no basis for these assumptions, particularly for someone in his position.
It's more likely that he stayed in Costa Rica and moved to Nicaragua/Guatemala for recruitment or other financial purposes or even some intel-mission with his partners (low possibility).
He had already arrived in Somalia by the time the media released the video.
You can read about the arrest here.
On April 07, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced that his government has banned people from carrying weapons on the streets of Mogadishu, the country's capital.
"We impose a strict ban on carrying guns in the streets of Mogadishu.
One cannot justify having machine guns mounted on vehicles and rocket-propelled grenades in the streets, for protection from a hiding al-Shabab militant armed with a pistol," the president said.
At end of March, it was announced that Somalia's Federal State of Jubaland has rejected plans to recruit local militia in the pretext of fighting Al-Shabaab, a strategy that had been used in different parts of the country.
Any recruitment will be done by the security department.
That was announced before the second phase of the Al-Shabaab crackdown.
In my opinion, these two statements are a serious mistake ( more to be written in the conclusion chapter).
The Macawisley clan plays an important role in suppressing Al-Shabaab, and personal weapons for every citizen can provide security and quick availability to prevent attacks.
Additionally, the other side may interpret these announcements as a point of weakness and a window of opportunity.
A good read about the Macawisley clan and why they have had success against Al-Shabaab and the nature of their relationship with Somalia's Federal Government, by Brendon J. Cannon can be found here.
Now we will return to the ceremony and the speeches and see the parallels for the current period.
Ali Mohamed H Rage repeats the group's warning to Somali civilians to "stay away" from government forces and buildings as well as other "legitimate" targets.
He repeated and warn civilians from going near government & foreign structures.
Ali Mohamed H Rage specifically warns civil society leaders & politicians.
In recent days the Al-Shabaab targeted several civil society leaders & politicians.
On April 04, 2023, Al-Shabaab injured a Somalian parliament election committee element in Karan district, Mogadishu, Somalia.
On April 14, 2023, Afgoyee Mayor survived an assassination attempt and one of his guards was injured in an IED attack in Afgoyee, southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
On April 09, 2023, Al-Shabaab shelled Mogadishu presidential palace with missiles killing five, including two officers, and injuring fifteen civilians.
On April 06, 2023, Al-Shabaab targeted the convoy of Hiran's mayor, Ali Geti, with IED killing two Somalian forces, including a bomb expert in Beledweyne City, Hiran State, Somalia.
If that is not enough, on April 17, 2023, Al-Shabaab assassinated the former deputy of Baldawin police station, Officer Nour Hassan Badar, in Baldawin City, Hiran, Somalia.
In his speech, Ali Mohamed H Rage targeted the foreign forces in Somalia.
Muhammad Bashar Abd al-Karim said the fate of foreign forces in Somalia will be similar to that in Afghanistan.
On April 12, 2023, Al-Shabaab targeted a Ugandan foot patrol with IED, killing and injuring several, in Bofo district, Marka city, Lower Shabelle state, Somalia.
On April 09, 2023, Al-Shabaab killed two Burundian forces in an IED attack in Borni, Mahdai, Middle Shabelle state, southern Somalia.
On April 06, 2023, Al-Shabaab attacked a Kenyan and Somalian military base, killing and injuring several, in Tabto and Gufgaduud Bori towns in Juba and Bay states, southwestern Somalia.
On April 15, 2023, Al-Shabaab Ambushed a Ugandan & a Somalian Convoy in Janaali, Lower Shabelle, Southern Somalia.
It goes without saying that military bases and patrol forces are also high-priority targets for potential threats and attacks.
On April 12, 2023, Al-Shabaab killed & injured five Somalian forces and destroyed their vehicle in an IED attack in Alisha district, Mogadishu, Somalia.
And there are many like this one including bases.
The comparison between what was said in the series of speeches and everyday reality is very interesting.
The damage caused is very painful, especially for politicians and foreign forces.
About Al-Shabaab finance
First, let's not forget that one of Al-Shabaab's main ideological points is Wahhabism.
Al-Shabaab primarily relies on local mosques, religious leaders, and community networks for long-term financial support, mostly in the form of food, water, shelter, and clothing.
Financial jihad always and everywhere involves providing financial support to mujahideen and their families, as well as supplying their needs and assisting the families of fallen or wounded fighters.
The repeated warning to citizens in the speech - from my point of view, there is a hidden warning here regarding the extortion of sponsorship fees (Zakat) One of the organization's main sources of income, is a call to citizens that owns local businesses and factories to cooperate with the "Zakat" collectors (usually the "Amniyat" wing actors).
It's interesting to see how history repeats itself.
We're seeing that now with the recent concerns raised by the local authorities about extremist groups extorting businesses in Puntland.
You can read more about it here.
Another great read about the Al-Shabaab revenue can be found here.
However, there are more sources of Al-Shabaab's revenue.
Al-Shabaab was involved in gold mining operations (last reported on November 2022) that have become one of their primary targets for zakat collection activities in northeastern Somalia, especially in the Golis mountains range, around Milxo.
An interesting article about this, written by the researcher Abdirisak Abdulkadir Ibrahim, can be found here.
The funds from the illegal Somali mineral and gemstone trade were used especially for recruiting and paying foreign fighters.
The main locations in Somalia where valuable stones are available are in the Golis & Al-Madow mountains of Sanaag and the Qandalla mountains of Bari the regions.
Al-Shabaab still needs control of the northern Somaliland and Somalia coasts for weapon smuggling from Yemen.
Sugar illicit smuggling line industry
According to a report by the "Global Initiative Network" In December 2022, the Al-Shabaab group extracts a percentage of the value of the entire illicit cross-border trade, particularly in sugar, between Somalia and Kenya.
This sugar smuggling operation was first reported in 2015 when the Kenyan Defence Forces (KDF) were involved in a $400-million sugar smuggling scheme in Somalia that also funded the Al-Shabaab militants they were supposed to be fighting.
Most of the sugar sacks are imported from Dubai to the port of Kismayo and then transported by trucks to Kenya under the supervision of Al-Shabaab.
In one of my previous articles, I covered the Iranian smuggling route from the ports of Dubai directly to the port of Kismayo, which is most likely used for illicit cargo such as weapons or sugar.
According to my research, this line is still active.
You can read more about this smuggling tactic here.
The "Amniyat Secret Security & Intelligence” Wing
Recent events suggest that the "Amniyat Secret Security and Intelligence” Wing is becoming more active by analyzing the nature of the attacks, carrying out targeted attacks using IEDs and suicide bombings as well as assassinations operations, which are within the purview of the wing.
The “Amniyat” Wing has been demanding sponsorship fees from various sources, indicating a rise in extortion activities (Zakat).
On April 10th, a video from a ceremony was analyzed, revealing the "Amniyat's" activists operating behind the scenes.
In recent days, the leaders of the organization are considered a target by the Somali government, a fact that may explain the increase in the wing's activities and responsibilities.
Al-Shabaab foreign Jihadists.
This is the last chapter before the conclusions.
Another incident that did not receive much attention occurred on April 4, 2023.
An event where the reliability of the report is in question!
Whether it is a disinformation campaign or not, the Somali government should learn from such cases and exploit this weakness for the benefit of the campaign against Al-Shabaab.
Local media networks reported that Al-Shabaab militants clashed with their foreign recruits in Somalia.
In a further escalation of tensions, armed confrontations broke out in Jilib town, located in the Middle Jubba region, with a senior member of Al-Shabaab known as Jabir being attacked by an opposing faction loyal to the self-declared leader of Al-Shabaab.
This incident resulted in the death of five Al-Shabaab members and the injury of eight others, including the senior foreign Al-Shabaab fighter who was the target.
He was captured and taken by the "Amniyat” Wing led by Mahad Karate.
The underlying cause of this attack was a disagreement between Al-Shabaab members.
Though there is no confirmation of this event from an official intelligence source, the Somali government should pay attention to such fissures within the Al-Shabaab group.
Such events can hasten the downfall of the group at least in the areas where they occur.
It is very important to identify processes of this type and isolate the particular region.
By checking facts, there is no Al-Shabaab senior member named/nicknamed Jabir in this region…
The only reliable fact in this story is that the Kenyan faction of Al-Shabaab does operate in the Juba region, which borders Kenya and contains a mix of Kenyan, Somali, and Tanzanian Mujahideen.
The leader of the Kenyan faction of Al-Shabaab is believed to be Ahmed Iman Ali aka Abu Zinira.
The Kenyan faction of Al-Shabaab is known to get money through criminal activities like extortion, kidnapping, and smuggling.
In one of his past interviews Sheikh Ali said to have the ability to attract financial support and followers from countries like the US and Europe.
In recent days the Al-Shabaab Kenya faction, receive support in the form of money and supplies from Al-Shabaab's leadership in Somalia and has been known to work with other militant groups in the area, like Boko Haram in Nigeria.
Intelligence reports claim that Jana Cabdalle's suicide attack on March 07, 2023, was made by a Burundian nationality from Kibimba linked to Al-Shabaab.
To summarize the foreigners subject, Al-Shabaab has always recruited foreigners into its ranks, and let's not forget that the organization's affiliates are also active in Kenya and Mozambique and are responsible, among other things, for carrying out infernal attacks.
The vast majority of foreigners active in Somalia have Kenyan citizenship, but the organization's agenda also concerns those with other African nationalities.
In addition, the group has been known to recruit individuals from other parts of the world, including Europe and even the United States.
A good example is Omar Shafik Hamami aka Abu Mansur Al-Amriki, an American citizen who was a member and leader in the Al-Shabaab group and was killed in 2013 by Al-Shabaab militants.
This strategy of recruiting foreigners has helped the group maintain its strength and expand its operations beyond Somalia's borders.
One thing is clear, all of Al-Shabaab’s senior leaders have extraordinary charisma that allows them to keep the organization!
I do not rule out the option, and there is a high probability that Lutrnan Warsame Farah stayed under a false identity in South America and may have even tried to reach foreign recruits thanks to the charisma he possesses.
Conclusions & Recommendations
The fight against a terrorist organization is a complex and multifaceted issue that requires a comprehensive approach.
One of the main challenges in fighting against Al-Shabaab is the group's ability to adapt and evolve.
There needs to be a separation between Al-Shabaab's losses and the organization's higher-than-ever motivation and fighting spirit, and this is likely what the Somalian army is missing in understanding.
The Somali government must change its tactics! One assassinated politician is not worth 3,000 claimed Al-Shabaab fighters killed!
Adopt a comprehensive strategy: As mentioned earlier, a comprehensive approach that combines diplomacy, economic measures, social programs, effective intelligence gathering, cyber capabilities, and law enforcement efforts is required to defeat Al-Shabaab.
Military action alone cannot succeed in defeating a group like Al-Shabaab or any other terrorist group!
The government should work with other countries and international organizations to create and implement a holistic approach, a good example is the arrest and deportation of Lutrnan Warsame Farah from Costa Rica.
As an initial step: the Somali government should combat the group's propaganda!
Al-Shabaab uses propaganda to recruit new members and spread its ideology.
The government should work to counter this propaganda by using its own media channels to promote positive messaging and discredit the group's ideology.
It is recommended that the Somali government impose sanctions against "Al-Kataib Media" the main media network of Al-Shabaab.
Al-Shabaab operates a network of photographers independently.
In addition, it is recommended that law enforcement agencies conduct an investigation and impose sanctions and arrest the photographers as well.
Process identification of Al-Shabaab weakness areas: To weaken Al-Shabaab, the Somali government should identify and exploit the group's internal weaknesses, such as the recent rifts that occurred in Jilib on April 04, 2023.
Though there is no confirmation of this event from an official intelligence source,
by analyzing such events, the government can accelerate the group's downfall, at least in the affected areas.
It is crucial to identify the underlying processes of such fissures and isolate the particular region for a possible attack.
Engage with local communities: Local communities are often the first line of defense against Al-Shabaab.
The government should engage with local communities to understand their concerns and provide them with the necessary support and resources to resist the group's influence.
Based on my extensive experience with terrorist groups and local criminal organizations, as a significant proportion of the recruits for this organization are young people, it is crucial to increase awareness among the youth in Somalia and collaborate with the education authorities in Kenya and Mozambique.
This collaboration could prevent youth recruitment by Al-Shabaab.
Therefore, it is essential to convey the message and raise awareness among the youth in these areas about the associated risks.
The President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohammed, should allow the carrying of weapons on the streets of Mogadishu, again, this is an important step for the security of the citizens.
This is of course under the supervision of the law authorities and in accordance with procedures and criteria.
It is recommended for the army to use the militias of local tribes like the Macawisley Militia since they have an excellent knowledge of the area and of course a high interest and fighting spirit against the Al-Shabaab organization that is wreaking havoc in the villages.
Of course, it is important to ensure that any use of militias is in line with established procedures and human rights standards.
Strengthen border security: Al-Shabaab operates in multiple countries in the region, including Kenya and Ethiopia.
The government should work with these countries to strengthen border security and prevent the group from carrying out cross-border attacks.
The Somali government should utilize advanced intelligence units and Special Forces/Anti-terror units to fight the "Amniyat” Intelligence Wing, which has been increasing the frequency of its attacks and actions.
Work with international partners: The fight against Al-Shabaab is not limited to Somalia.
The government should work with its international partners, including the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), the United Nations, and other regional organizations, to coordinate efforts in the fight against Al-Shabaab.
A good example is the arrest and deportation of Lutrnan Warsame Farah from Costa Rica.
Strengthen intelligence gathering and surveillance capabilities: Effective intelligence gathering is critical in the fight against Al-Shabaab.
The government should invest in its intelligence gathering and surveillance capabilities to anticipate and disrupt the group's activities.
It is very important to internalize: A war against the phenomenon of sponsorship fee extortion (Zakat) is impossible with military action alone.
In fact, it is not related at all!
A proper attack on this phenomenon will only be carried out through the use of advanced technological means (Cyber technologies can include various methods of electronic surveillance and interception) and intelligence units (especially the use of HUMINT methods) in order to bring evidence and the perpetrators and their leaders into custody.
Address the root causes of instability: Somalia's political and economic instability is one of the factors that Al-Shabaab has exploited to recruit new members and expand its influence.
The government should focus on creating a stable political and economic environment that provides opportunities for its citizens.
It should prioritize the establishment of governance and security institutions and focus on the provision of basic services.
These are my recommendations based on my extensive experience in fighting terrorism/ organized crime organizations for the last 20 years in various intelligence ranks & positions.
There is more to write, especially on Finance & “Amniyat”, but I will keep it to the next time.
Thank you for reading my article! This article is public so feel free to share it!
Views are my own, follow me on Twitter.
April 2023.
Special Credits
Christopher Anzalone for a great analysis of the ceremony at Al-Shabaab's "Sayyid Muhammad 'Abdullah Hassan Military Training Camp video.
Brendon J. Cannon for a great read about the Macawisley Militia.
Jay Bahadur for his detailed research about the Al-Shabaab sugar illicit line of smugglings.
TRACTerrorism account on Twitter for daily conflict events tracking.